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Ukrainian forces have dramatically increased the number of attacks conducted against Russian oil refineries in the last several months, sparking petroleum deficits and price rises in certain regions of the country.

Historic Assault Numbers

Unmanned aerial vehicle attacks on fuel facilities - multiple far within Russian territory - surged in August and remained high in September, analysis of available data showed.

Approximately 21 of the country's 38 significant fuel facilities - facilities where crude oil is converted into refined products like petrol and diesel - have been hit since January, with damaging assaults already significantly increased than the entire of 2024.

Effect on Civilian Life

Regular citizens appear to be feeling the impact of the strikes, with confirmed footage showing extended lines at fuel pumps.

Various facilities have stopped functioning to "endure the crisis" rather than operate unprofitably," one operator told local media.

Tactical Aims

Ukraine's intelligence agency remained silent to a request for comment. But the Ukrainian leader has said harming Russia's oil industry is a key means of forcing Russia to the diplomatic discussions.

"The most effective sanctions – those that function most quickly – are the infernos at Russia's oil refineries, its installations, oil warehouses," the Ukrainian leader said in a recent speech. "We have significantly limited Russia's oil industry, and this notably constrains the war."

Internal Assaults

Some of the strikes have been launched against installations deep inside Russia. In recent weeks, military units effectively struck a important oil refinery in the far eastern territory on two occasions.

Satellite images showed clouds emerging from the installation - which is over 1,100km (683 miles) from the shared frontier - after the attack.

Important Plants

Kyiv has also attacked some of Russia's most profitable facilities. A fuel facility near Volgograd has been attacked on multiple occasions this year - with an assault in August compelling it to stop production for a month.

Ukrainian strikes appear to be pursuing two targets - large refineries crucial for public consumption and those in proximity to the border employed to provide soldiers engaged in Ukraine, according to sector specialists.

Output Effects

There are complications to assess the extent to which the strikes are impacting the output of fuel products as Russia classified data regarding gasoline production in May 2024 during an previous wave of attacks on refineries.

But analysis found that at least 10 oil refineries have been compelled to totally or partially stop activities since August, and data indicate that on certain days domestic output has dropped by as much as 20 percent.

Local Consequences

Multiple indicators show that the plant attacks are causing consequences on ordinary activities in parts of Russia.

• Footage authenticated have shown extended lines at petrol stations in the eastern regions
• Officials have implemented distribution limits of petrol in occupied Crimea
• Owners of private and standalone gas facilities in Siberia have informed news organizations they have had to shut down

"Based on my assessment we haven't seen a situation like this since post-Soviet times," a supervisor in the Novosibirsk region told area publication. "Several petrol stations have now stopped their functions. Possibly it is preferable to survive the situation than operate at a deficit."

Cost Rises

Although Russia has traditionally seen price increases driven by summer travelling and oil refinery upkeep, the drone strikes are worsening it.

Consumer fuel costs have increased, while wholesale prices - the cost at which distributors acquire from producers - have increased even faster, increasing by nearly half since January.

Official Reaction

Russian officials have maintained that the circumstances remains under management. Last month administrative sources said that the authorities had taken "deliberate actions to guarantee that the price level for petroleum and electricity stays constant".

But government representatives announced last week that a specific prohibition on fuel shipments had been extended to the completion of the upcoming period. Market observers noted that the export suspension was somewhat limited and "won't save the internal economy".

Extended Effects

The extent to which the assaults are affecting Russia's capacity to use fuel earnings to finance its military in Ukraine is also unclear.

The great proportion of Russia's oil exports are in the type of untreated fuel, which do not appear to have been affected by the strikes.

Research performed at the conclusion of last month showed that crude oil exports - while reduced earnings than processed fuels - had reached a unprecedented level.

"These operations independently will not overcome the nation, but are undoubtedly raising the challenge of the ongoing hostilities," commented security specialists.